In front of a sold out Rose Bowl and a largely pro Mexican crowd, the Gold Cup Trophy will be handed out Saturday night. This is the final everyone wanted from the start. Not only a spot in the 2013 Confederations Cup is at stake, but also bragging rights between the rivals is on the line. The Mexicans are out to avenge the Gold Cup final loss in 2007; The Americans (although it was a b squad) are out to hit back after a 5-0 humiliation in the 2009 Gold Cup final.
Watching both semifinals, the matches had a similar trajectory. Mexico and the US struggled to create chances against Honduras and Panama, who defended deep. However, each team eventually broke through the defensive barrier and drive themselves into the final.
US Road to the Final and Tactical Prediction
The Yanks struggled out of the gates in a tournament where they were expected to cruise to the finals. After a comfortable 2-0 win v Canada, Panama rushed out of the gates to a 2-0 lead and held on 2-1. Then, the US won a must win match v Guadeloupe 1-0 in a lackadaisical effort. In the quarters, the US put in their best performance winning emphatically 2-0 over a surging Jamaica. The semifinals allowed for revenge as they struggled to break down Panama but eked out a 1-0 win.
Bob Bradley is expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 system he debuted against Jamaica and kept v Panama. (for more info on this system check out our reviews of those matches found on the USMNT menu bar). This has led to a possession style game. Bradley is expected to maintain 10 of the starting XI from the past two matches. The only question mark is Landon Donovan. Will Bradley use him as a super sub, which worked the past two matches, or will he start the match? Sasha Kljestan put in a poor display v Panama and was withdrawn at halftime. For this reason, I expect Bradley to start Donovan in the playmaker role.
Watching both semifinals, the matches had a similar trajectory. Mexico and the US struggled to create chances against Honduras and Panama, who defended deep. However, each team eventually broke through the defensive barrier and drive themselves into the final.
US Road to the Final and Tactical Prediction
The Yanks struggled out of the gates in a tournament where they were expected to cruise to the finals. After a comfortable 2-0 win v Canada, Panama rushed out of the gates to a 2-0 lead and held on 2-1. Then, the US won a must win match v Guadeloupe 1-0 in a lackadaisical effort. In the quarters, the US put in their best performance winning emphatically 2-0 over a surging Jamaica. The semifinals allowed for revenge as they struggled to break down Panama but eked out a 1-0 win.
Bob Bradley is expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 system he debuted against Jamaica and kept v Panama. (for more info on this system check out our reviews of those matches found on the USMNT menu bar). This has led to a possession style game. Bradley is expected to maintain 10 of the starting XI from the past two matches. The only question mark is Landon Donovan. Will Bradley use him as a super sub, which worked the past two matches, or will he start the match? Sasha Kljestan put in a poor display v Panama and was withdrawn at halftime. For this reason, I expect Bradley to start Donovan in the playmaker role.
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| Mexico Attack |
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| Mexico Attack - CM drops to form back 3 |
Mexico Tactical Prediction
Mexico cruised through the group stages scoring 14 and conceding 1 v El Salvador, Cuba and Costa Rica. Surprisingly, they fell a goal behind in the quarters v Guatemala but rallied to win 2-1. Continuing their struggles in the knockout rounds, Honduras took El Tri into extra time only to fall 2-0.
Throughout the Gold Cup, Jose de la Torre has used a variation of the 4-4-2. Chicharito is paired with Gio Dos Santos up top. Chicharito functions as the central striker playing in the channels off the shoulder of an opposing center back. Dos Santos has more of a free role, often times drifting wide to play one-twos with Barrera or Guardado.
Torrado and Castro play as central midfielders. They rarely push forward, often one of the two dropping as a center back when Mexico attack (see diagram). Salcido and Juarez are influential in pushing up high to offer a numerical advantage on the flanks. This system results in Mexico's reliance on attacking from out wide.
Mexico cruised through the group stages scoring 14 and conceding 1 v El Salvador, Cuba and Costa Rica. Surprisingly, they fell a goal behind in the quarters v Guatemala but rallied to win 2-1. Continuing their struggles in the knockout rounds, Honduras took El Tri into extra time only to fall 2-0.
Throughout the Gold Cup, Jose de la Torre has used a variation of the 4-4-2. Chicharito is paired with Gio Dos Santos up top. Chicharito functions as the central striker playing in the channels off the shoulder of an opposing center back. Dos Santos has more of a free role, often times drifting wide to play one-twos with Barrera or Guardado.
Torrado and Castro play as central midfielders. They rarely push forward, often one of the two dropping as a center back when Mexico attack (see diagram). Salcido and Juarez are influential in pushing up high to offer a numerical advantage on the flanks. This system results in Mexico's reliance on attacking from out wide.
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| Mexico 4-4-2 Defense with Pressure |
Defensively, Mexico wants to pressure the ball. Chicharito and Dos Santos put in a ton of work harassing the back four. One of Torrado or Castro will run at the ball in a ‘destroyer tactic’ (like Pepe for Real Madrid v Barca).
Keys to the Match
- Who dominates the center of midfield – If Mexico stays with the 4-4-2, the US should have the edge in the middle, especially when Dempsey plays in his preferred narrow left position. To exploit this advantage, the Yanks must be calm on the ball and pass through the defensive pressure, instead of hitting long balls. If the Americans are sloppy with the ball, the Mexicans have the speed to recover possession and launch a lethal counter attack.
- Physicality – Although small, Chicharito is a physical striker who can do damage in the air. To combat this, Carlos Bocanegra should be the center back to deal with him. He lacks pace, but Bocanegra should win most of the headers and has experience in dealing with quick players, as he plays in France’s League 1. If Chicharito can play off the shoulder of Goodson, he could wreak havoc. Goodson lacks physicality and struggles to defend in one v one situations.
- Tim Howard – Mexico should be able to get shots on the Yanks goal and will swing in crosses all night. Howard will be needed to be aggressive and collect crosses in the air and also make splendid saves to keep the US in the match.
- Dominance on the Wings – Mexico primarily attacks down the flanks, with Dos Santos floating to the wing, and a fullback overlapping. To contest this, the Americans need Bedoya and Dempsey to track back. Cherundolo and Lichaj may be pinned back worried about defending. This would result in a lack of width in the American’s attack.
- US on the Counter – Most likely, Mexico will have the larger share of possession. Thus, the US needs Landon Donovan to start the match so he can combine with Dempsey and Agudelo to create chances on the counter. To start the counter, Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones need to collect the ball and distribute effectively.
- The Crowd – Every player on the pitch (except Juan Agudelo) has experienced intense atmospheres. However, if the match is deadlocked, the pro-Mexican crowd could give El Tri the belief to go on and win the match.
Prediction
Being die hard US supporters, we would be lying if we said there was no bias in our prediction. Our heart is saying a US 2-1 win with Tim Howard making saves to keep the Yanks in the match and a late counter attacking goal (similar to Dempsey's strike v Panama link) stealing the win.
However, our head says Mexico will be too strong. Let's face it, El Tri has the better starting XI and, more importantly, have a lethal finisher in Chicharito. As a result, our brain says Mexico will lift the cup after a 3-1 win. (We hope this prediction is a jinx).
We hope the atmosphere in Pasadena is festive and not hostile between the fans. Also, we hope the match lives up to the hype.
Follow us on twitter for live commentary of the match @kpngacleansheet.
If interested Like us on facebook where we would love feedback and are considering running a live in match chat.
Keys to the Match
- Who dominates the center of midfield – If Mexico stays with the 4-4-2, the US should have the edge in the middle, especially when Dempsey plays in his preferred narrow left position. To exploit this advantage, the Yanks must be calm on the ball and pass through the defensive pressure, instead of hitting long balls. If the Americans are sloppy with the ball, the Mexicans have the speed to recover possession and launch a lethal counter attack.
- Physicality – Although small, Chicharito is a physical striker who can do damage in the air. To combat this, Carlos Bocanegra should be the center back to deal with him. He lacks pace, but Bocanegra should win most of the headers and has experience in dealing with quick players, as he plays in France’s League 1. If Chicharito can play off the shoulder of Goodson, he could wreak havoc. Goodson lacks physicality and struggles to defend in one v one situations.
- Tim Howard – Mexico should be able to get shots on the Yanks goal and will swing in crosses all night. Howard will be needed to be aggressive and collect crosses in the air and also make splendid saves to keep the US in the match.
- Dominance on the Wings – Mexico primarily attacks down the flanks, with Dos Santos floating to the wing, and a fullback overlapping. To contest this, the Americans need Bedoya and Dempsey to track back. Cherundolo and Lichaj may be pinned back worried about defending. This would result in a lack of width in the American’s attack.
- US on the Counter – Most likely, Mexico will have the larger share of possession. Thus, the US needs Landon Donovan to start the match so he can combine with Dempsey and Agudelo to create chances on the counter. To start the counter, Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones need to collect the ball and distribute effectively.
- The Crowd – Every player on the pitch (except Juan Agudelo) has experienced intense atmospheres. However, if the match is deadlocked, the pro-Mexican crowd could give El Tri the belief to go on and win the match.
Prediction
Being die hard US supporters, we would be lying if we said there was no bias in our prediction. Our heart is saying a US 2-1 win with Tim Howard making saves to keep the Yanks in the match and a late counter attacking goal (similar to Dempsey's strike v Panama link) stealing the win.
However, our head says Mexico will be too strong. Let's face it, El Tri has the better starting XI and, more importantly, have a lethal finisher in Chicharito. As a result, our brain says Mexico will lift the cup after a 3-1 win. (We hope this prediction is a jinx).
We hope the atmosphere in Pasadena is festive and not hostile between the fans. Also, we hope the match lives up to the hype.
Follow us on twitter for live commentary of the match @kpngacleansheet.
If interested Like us on facebook where we would love feedback and are considering running a live in match chat.
Nice love the in depth Preview... I'm bias towards the Mexico Squad, and even though they've been the best team in the gold cup so far.. The U.S. is only playing better each game, while it appears opposing teams are doing better at nullifying Mexico's attack. It'll be a good game and honestly doubt it's a high scoring one, unless the U.S. gets desperate and creates a lot of openings for Dos Santos to exploit
ReplyDeleteyou should also talk about how mexico plays when de nigris comes in.. nice article
ReplyDeleteI just love the TITLE OF THE PAGE...Now...What about an analysis of Bob Bradley lack of gamemanship and poor player choise...Or what about a critic on Bob Bradley insistance of bringing Sacha and BEdoya in to the team..????
ReplyDeleteIt's kind of the same in nearly every game these two teams play. The heart says the USA, the head says Mexico. But we should be wondering if the head really should be saying Mexico. The USA is 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses against Mexico since 2000 and that includes many games where logic was just screaming a Mexico win (especially the 2002 world cup second round) but the USA somehow did it.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, neither team has impressed me too much in the knockout rounds. The USA, although having by far the best knockout round performance of the tournament in their 2-0 win over Jamaica, hardly created any chances against Panama. Mexico, on the other hand, definitely underestimated Guatemala and had a real fight on their hands. Also, Honduras were able to hold them off until extra time (in what was definitely the most entertaining match of the Gold Cup so far), even when Mexico really should have won it in regular time (am I the only one who couldn't believe it when Dos Santos missed one-on-one with the keeper?). I seriously cannot call this final either way. It will be entertaining no matter what though. My only prediction: we will see a red card tomorrow. They are never far away when these two teams play each other.
Thanks for the analysis. i predict Mexico 1-0 (or maybe 2-1).
ReplyDelete"the Yanks must be calm on the ball and pass through the defensive pressure, instead of hitting long balls." This has seemed to be the key for them this tourney. (The notable exception being Adu's pass to Donovan.) I agree that US goals will likely be off counters. for this reason and others, I'd like to see Adu in the starting lineup.
Bedoya has looked smart, but where is the production? I would expect Adu to be subbed out early in the second half. Adu looked creative and confident in his 20 or 25 minutes, and provided a definite spark. Given the consistently slow starts by USMNT this tourney, I'd rather see that spark early. Donovan also is a playmaker, and best from the right. Keep Demsey on the left. Ideally, later in the game with the lead, sub in more possession-minded players. (But Bradley will probably go with Bedoya.)
-------------Agudelo----
--Dempsey--Adu---Donovan
------Jones Bradley-----
Lichaj Boca Goodson 'dolo
--Justa Guy
Great article. I'm a die hard Mexico supporter, but your analysis is excellent. Good luck tomorrow. This is the game that makes me the most nervous of all. It's always difficult for Mexico to play the US, no matter where, no matter the circumstances, it's always a tough game. Respectfully said, Mexico usually has the edge on skill and experience compared to the US. However, it's often their mental mistakes and lack of discipline which throw games away. I believe in this new generation. Different style, great skill and the best of all, much better mentality. I hope for a Mexico win and for a great match.
ReplyDeleteGreat to see Mexico supporters liking the preview. I understand your nerves as all the supporters will be on edge.
ReplyDeleteI am not the biggest Bedoya fan, but understand why Bradley picks him. He works hard and tracks back on defense, making up for him not creating chances. He does tho have the ability to pass the ball under pressure.
I forgot to mention De Nigris. He and Adu will be the X factor substitutes on each team. De Nigris is dangerous in the air and is a completely different player the Dos Santos, making it hard for the defense to adjust on the fly.
I am not buying into the US having the edge on history. This Mexico team has experience in Europe and youthful talent.
Thanks for all the comments.
I think the game will be pretty much like every MEX vs. USA match I can remember. MEX trying to overload the USA, who will be hoping for swift caounters. The only game changer I can imagine would be an early mexican lead. Otherwise, the longer the americans keep it all square the stronger their morale will be, while the mexicans will start to lose patience and maybe get nervous.
ReplyDeleteAs a mexican fan I'm a little nervous that the USA ar slight underdogs for the match. It adds pressure on el Tri to succeed and favours the american approach I mentioned before. Still, compared to the poor attacking and very rough (bad intentioned?) tackling MEX has faced till now I'm positive this will be a thrilling encounter.
I'm also hoping none of the 5 replacements plays a part to at least give us fans the illusion of fairnes. Belive us: No one is more outraged and ashamed about the clenbuterol affair than mexican fans. I don't think the americans will be looking for excuses shold they not lift the trophy though.
Greetings from Germany where I'll have to wake up at 5AM to watch the game :-(
I just want to say that this is an excellent analysis. I also want to thank you because as a Mexico fan it is very rare that I see a 99% unbiased viewpoint on the two teams. Both of our teams have flaws. Mexico plays brilliant beautiful attacking football but gets frustrated and is susceptible to being counter attacked. The US plays defensive minded but with great tactics and a good team mentality that has allowed them to beat teams like Spain and push Brazil to the wire. In fact if the US had some top class defenders they could go very far... Overall I hope we see a good game on Saturday...
ReplyDeleteI might be Biased but Mexico has always been technically superior and has always had a better team then Usa.. But the US has found a way to beat mexico time and time again...I am Mexican and My heart will always be with Mexico but i know todays match will be a nervy one..and I also think that the yanks SHOULD use long balls into the area because they have the advantage of height and Strength... but i think mexico will punish the US if they attack and if they Bunker down Mexico will still score i predict a 3-1 to Mexico
ReplyDelete