For the right to advance to the Finals, the US will have to avenge a group stage defeat to Panama. In the first meeting in Tampa, the Red Tide came quickly out of the gates, catching the Yanks by surprise and taking a 2-nil first half lead. The Yanks responded after the break with a 68th minute header from Clarence Goodson, but Panama held on for the 2-1 upset.
In the post-match press conference, the American players had similar responses as to why they started slowly. Landon Donovan said they came out flat. Tim Howard said the performance was “lifeless.” (si.com). As for Panama, manager Julio Dely Valdes said it was gratifying to defeat the US and they “had the belief.” It seemed like the Red Tide wanted the win more than the Americans, who expected the group stages to be a walk through the park after a comfortable 2-nil win over Canada.
Panama’s Strategy and Progression to the Semifinals
The Red Tide employ a 4-4-2 formation. Luis Tejada and Blas Perez operate as the strikers. However, Perez got sent off in extra time v El Salvador and will be suspended. This is a blow for Panama who are expected to bring in Luis Renteria to the starting XI in a like for like replacement. An alternative option for manager Julio Dely Valdes is to pack the midfield and play Tejada as a lone striker (since the US dominated the center v Jamaica).
For Panama, the danger man will be Tejada. He has scored three classic poachers goals (v US, Canada and El Salvador). He is a very physical striker. For example, He outmuscled Goodson in the 42nd minute of the first match on a long ball and found space to shoot, almost adding a third Panamanian goal.
Keys to the Match
Which team gets out of the gates quicker – Under Bob Bradley’s tenure, the US has surrendered the opening goal in 38.6% of games (si.com). This is a high number considering the low level of competition offered in CONCACAF. In the Gold Cup, the Americans have allowed early chances. They conceded two first half goals v Panama. Guadeloupe hit the crossbar in the third minute from a corner. Jamaica had a one on one with Tim Howard saved and a subsequent rebound shot over the bar, on an open goal, in the 5th minute. So, the US will be attempting to dominate possession early in the match and Panama will try and strike early and sit on the lead.
Center of the Pitch – If Panama stays with the 4-4-2; the Yanks should be able to dominate the center of the pitch. Dempsey has operated in a narrow left role and the addition of Kljestan in front of Jermaine Jones and Michael Bradley will allow a 4 v 2 advantage at times. Also, after coasting through the Spain friendly and the group stages, Jermaine Jones stepped up his play v Jamaica, providing cover for Lichaj on the left when he attacked and also scored the opening goal.
Set Pieces – Evaluating each teams scoring chances, the majority of them came on the set piece. The first matchup had 35 total fouls, 18 on the US and 17 on Panama. Clint Dempsey nearly opened the scoring in the 8th minute with a right footed strike that came from an Altidore knockdown.
Panama scored in the 19th minute after a free kick hit the US wall. The second cross was swung in to the back post and slack marking by Altidore lead to a free header which was saved by Tim Howard. But the rebound was conceded by Howard and Tejada poked it into the open net, beating Goodson to the ball.
The US came close on a number of set pieces in the rest of the match. Dempsey had a header go just over the crossbar in the 69th minute and other half chances on headers from Goodson and Dempsey went wide in the first half. Goodson provided the lone American tally off of a Landon Donovan set piece which was headed on by Michael Bradley.
Finishing Chances – In this tournament the US has been very poor in front of goal. Clint Dempsey has had a barrel load of chances and has wasted several, most against Guadeloupe. The Yanks will have to improve on their strike rate if they are to hoist the Gold Cup.
In the quarterfinal v El Salvador, Panama dominated the run of play but were unable to finish a chance. They fell a goal behind after conceding a penalty in the 77th minute. Panama was finally able to equalize in the 89th minute after a scramble in the box and a Luis Tejada finish. Replays indicated the ball did not cross the line before the El Salvador keeper collected it. Tejada poached a similar goal v the US after a rebound He also scored in the 90th minute v Canada after a scramble in the box.
Why the US Will Win
The Americans hit their stride in Sunday’s win v Jamaica (see our breakdown). Bob Bradley elected to start one striker and bring Sasha Kljestan into the center of midfield. This switch allowed the US to dominate the possession and overrun Jamaica in the center of the pitch. As for the lineup on Wednesday, I expect Bradley to use the same formation but starting Landon Donovan for Alejandro Bedoya on the right and Juan Agudelo for the injured Jozy Altidore up top.
Additionally, the Americans have shuffled around the back four since the loss to Panama. Tim Ream was put on the bench in favor of Eric Lichaj. Lichaj moved to left back and Carlos Bocanegra slotted inside at center back. Since Lichaj is a better attacking player than Bocanegra, the switch allows for more width in the US attack on the left. Also, Bocanegra’s experience inside will help. He does not have great pace, but his leadership and physicality are two attributes Ream does not possess. Ream was responsible for surrendering a penalty which led to the second goal for Panama. Ream possesses the ability to distribute the ball, but struggles in space when he is faced with defending a one v one situation.
Aside from the set piece, the Yanks were most dangerous against Panama on crosses from the right side, mainly from an overlapping Steve Cherundolo. This space on the right could also be available on the left as Lichaj will get forward more than Bocanerga did in the first match.
Finally, the Americans have had their wakeup call in the tournament. They now know what it will take to win. The camp is more cohesive after being together for three weeks. According to Bob Bradley after the Jamaica win, they finally developed a “rhythm” passing the ball and were “getting sharper” since the first match (ussoccer.com).
Why Panama Will Win
Panama comes into this match riding high in confidence. They have won 3 out of 4 matches in this tournament, only drawing Canada (it is worth noting they rested a few starters having already clinched a spot in the quarter finals).
Most likely Jozy Altidore will be unavailable for selection on Wednesday. He will undergo an MRI today to assess the extent of his hamstring injury. The injury will most likely result in Juan Agudelo starting up top. Agudelo is a very inexperienced player and this semifinal will most certainly be the biggest stage he has ever played on. Panama’s physicality and persistent fouling may frustrate Agudelo and mentally affect him.
Lastly, the Red Tide will most certainly be backed by a pro-Mexican crowd in Houston (we all know the animosity Mexican fans have for the Yanks and visa versa) as El Tri play in the second match of the semifinals v Honduras.
Prediction
Panama has been impressive thus far in the Gold Cup, but defeating the US for a second time will be extremely difficult. I expect the Americans to come out more focused from the opening whistle and to play with urgency and passion. The passion was back in the win over the Reggae Boyz (see Dempsey's goal celebration).
As for the score: look for the US to win a hard fought battle 3-1, with the third goal coming in the 85th minute to seal a trip to Los Angeles and probably a dream final v Mexico.
We will post a breakdown following the Panama Match.
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The USA have no chance. Panama will win.
ReplyDeletePANAMA!